C2C电子商务交易的信用及风险评估方法研究-智能与分布计算实验室

C2C电子商务交易的信用及风险评估方法研究

姓名	高昶
论文答辩日期	2007.05.31
论文提交日期	2007.06.07
论文级别	硕士
中文题名	C2C电子商务交易的信用及风险评估方法研究
英文题名	Research on Credit Counting and Risk Evaluation for C2C E-Commerce
导师1	卢正鼎
导师2
中文关键词	电子商务;信用评价;风险评估;信任
英文关键词	E-Commerce;Credit Evaluation;Risk Evaluation;Trust
中文文摘	当前，C2C电子商务发展潜力巨大，但在实际电子商务应用中，信用危机问题却日益突出，特别是在线信任相当匮乏，严重制约了C2C电子商务的发展。此外，由于电子商务的虚拟性，交易双方通常是在非面对面的状况下完成交易，增大了交易风险。因此，如何解决困扰电子商务的信用问题，开展相关策略研究，具有非常重要的理论研究价值和经济意义。目前普遍使用的网上交易信用评价系统存在信用炒作和周期欺骗等方面的不足。提出了一种改进的信用计分方法，该方法采用商品价格的区间分布来对成功交易进行加分，采用信用等级的扣分系数来对不同信用等级的失败交易进行扣分，可以解决信用炒作和周期欺骗问题。通过对信用风险的分析，在改进的信用计分模型的基础上，设计了一种网上交易的风险计算方法，该方法可以根据历史交易的情况以及当前交易的价格来对当前交易的风险进行评估。模拟实验结果表明，改进的信用计分方法具有较好的抗信用炒作和周期欺骗效果，所给出的风险评估方法对电子商务交易中的风险分析和预测是比较准确和有效的。对于电子商务过程中出现的不公正评价，提出了相应的应对策略。采用买卖双方交易前相互隐藏身份的方式，降低了参入共同谋害诬蔑的买家选取相同受害目标的概率，抑制了诬蔑的发生；采用收取一定的交易费用的方式，增加了卖家通过同伙的吹捧来炒作信用的成本，抑制了吹捧发生的次数增长。设计了一个简易的C2C电子商务模拟系统。在该系统中，用户可以根据信用值和信用等级选择卖家。每次交易之前系统给出当前交易的风险值，供买家参考。
英文文摘	Nowadays C2C E-commerce has big market potential. But in the real use, credit risk become more and more crucial, especially the on-line trust, which hinder the progress of the C2C E-commerce. Otherwise, because the E-commerce is virtue, both of the seller and buyer finish their deal in the condition that they do not see each other. This increases the risk of the deal. So how to deal with the problem which bothers C2C E-commerce and how to research strategies which are used for C2C E-commerce become very important and have big research value and economy meaning. Now credit evaluation systems which are commonly used fall short of credit hyping and periodical cheating. This paper gives a new method of credit counting, which uses section distribution of commodity price to rate success trades and uses deducting coefficients to rate failed trades. It designs a risk computing method based on the improved credit counting through analyzing credit risk. The computation method can evaluate the risk of current trade according to history trades. Simulating experiments indicate the improved credit counting is preferable on anti credit hyping and anti periodical cheating, and the risk evaluation method is relatively accurate and effective when it is used to analyze and forecast risk in C2C model e-commerce. This paper gives relevant counter measure to cope with unfair ratings in e-commerce trades. It reduces the probability that conspirators choose specific victim by adopting anonymity scheme which conceals identities of market participants before they start a deal, so it constrains Badmouthing. It increases seller’s cost t used for credit hyping through Ballot stuffing by adopting charging every deal, so it constrains Ballot stuffing. It designs a simple system to simulate C2C model E-Commerce. In this system, users can choose right sellers to do businesses according to those trust values and trust ranks. The system gives the risk value of the current deal as a reference before every trade.